HARRISBURG — A new analysis released by the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission warns that rapidly increasing electricity demand, driven in large part by data center development, could create reliability challenges in Pennsylvania and the broader PJM regional power grid if new electricity supplies do not keep pace.
The analysis, conducted by Synapse Energy Economics, examined whether the region will have enough electricity resources to reliably meet demand as electricity use increases and existing power generation retires.
Using PJM’s current load forecast and assuming no additional policy actions, the study found that the regional grid would fall short of PJM’s reliability planning standard from 2027 through 2030.
PJM’s planning standard is designed around a potential electricity shortage occurring approximately once every 10 years. Under the study’s reference scenario, which reflects what the analysts considered the most likely conditions based on the current environment, the modeled reliability risk in 2030 was nearly six times that standard.
A more severe scenario, combining higher electricity demand with constraints on development of new generation, projected more than 13 potential loss-of-load events per year beginning in 2030.
The PUC emphasized that the projections do not mean customers would experience that number of outages. Instead, the scenarios are intended to illustrate the potential reliability risk if electricity demand grows substantially faster than available generation.
Data centers are identified as a significant factor in the projected increase in demand. In the severe scenario, new data center electricity demand projected across the PJM region between 2029 and 2030 alone would exceed Pennsylvania’s current annual electricity demand.
The commission said it has taken several steps related to large electricity users. In May, it established a model large-load tariff for customers requiring 50 megawatts or more, with the stated goal of ensuring those customers bear the costs they add to the electric system rather than shifting those costs to other ratepayers.
The PUC is also implementing Act 45 of 2025, which provides additional review of Pennsylvania utility load forecasts submitted to PJM.
The commission is also involved in PJM’s proposed Reliability Backstop Procurement program and has directed electric distribution companies seeking qualifying offsets to provide information for commission review.
The PUC said PJM’s capacity auctions for the 2027-28 and 2028-29 delivery years also fell short of the regional reliability requirement, leading to additional efforts to secure resources and address large-load growth.
PUC Chairman Steve DeFrank said the analysis indicates that decisions made in the next several years will affect the state’s ability to meet increasing electricity demand.
The commission said addressing the issue will require coordination among policymakers, regulators, utilities, electricity generators, consumer advocates and other stakeholders.
The full analysis, “Assessing Electricity Resource Adequacy in Pennsylvania and PJM,” was released Sept. 14. (efiling.puc.pa.gov)
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